This paper analyzes the pass-through of exchange rate to different price indexes in Mexico. The analysis is based on a vector autoregressive model (VAR) using monthly data from January 1997 to December 2010. The pass-through effects are calculated by means of accumulated impulse response...

We analyze the forecasts of inflation and GDP growth contained in the Banco de México’s Survey of Professional Forecasters for the period 1995–2009. The forecasts are for the current and the following year, and comprise an unbalanced three-dimensional panel with multiple individual...

This paper provides empirical evidence that combinations of option implied and time series volatility forecasts that are conditional on current information are statistically superior to individual models, unconditional combinations, and hybrid forecasts. Superior forecasting performance is...

Disagreement in inflation expectations observed from survey data varies systematically over time in a way that reflects the level and variance of current inflation. This paper offers a simple explanation for these facts based on asymmetries in the forecasters’ costs of over- and...

This document analyzes inflation, exchange rate, interest rate, and GDP growth forecasts from the monthly Survey of Professional Forecasters, maintained by Banco de México. The study concentrates on the mean across forecasters for the period from January 1995 to April 2008. Their efficiency in...

Little is known about the behavior of the term structure of interest rates in emerging markets. In this paper we study the dynamics of the term-structure of interest rates in Mexico between 2001 and 2008. We find that term-premia appears to be time-varying, and that over 99% of the total...