This document gives a detailed account of the current version of the Hungarian Quarterly Projection Model (NEM). It describes the main building blocks, presents the forecast performance of the model and, finally, it illustrates the responses to the most important shocks the Hungarian economy may...

In this paper we investigate the possible effects of fiscal tightening in Hungary from two perspectives. First, simulations in an estimated neo-Keynesian model are used to characterise the effects of different scenarios for fiscal consolidations. We show that the composition of fiscal shocks is...

In our paper we present the most important characteristics of the forint interest rate swap market, as well as examine the determinants and the information content of the forint interest rate swap spreads. The turnover of the forint interest rate swap market has grown dynamically in recent...

[...] The objective of this study is to analyse - relying on 2006 data - FX settlement risk that may arise in the domestic banking system under its current operations, and to chart the changes which took place after 2000, covering improvements and, if necessary, formulating (new) recommendations...

In an effort to correct worrisome trends in discretionary fiscal policy (deficit bias, procyclicality, and structural distortions), an increasing number of countries introduced a rules-based fiscal responsibility framework (FRF), characterized by fiscal policy rules, procedural rules,...

This article investigates the potential impact of a shift in market expectations about a country's eurozone entry date on long-term yields and the spot exchange rate in a simple uncovered interest parity (UIP) framework. The results suggest that the size of the reactions depend on how far the...

As significant part of national wealth, households' wealth is the central issue in both policy debate and academic literature. Nevertheless, in Hungary little effort has been made so far to conduct thorough evaluation of households' wealth for the last decade. Under the auspices of the plural of...

Until recently only aggregate data were available on national payment turnover. In reality, however, there are substantial differences across individual settlements (or between the various districts of Budapest). As a result, there is hardly any settlement which would be more or less on a par...

The subject of our study is market liquidity, which is an important element of the functioning of financial markets. Adequate liquidity of markets is of great significance from the point of view of both market participants and the central bank. On the one hand, of all market segments an...

It is widely believed today, that the operation of the labour markets is influenced by institutional factors, affecting macroeconomic adjustment in response to shocks. In this way, labour market institutions affect both cyclical and long-term growth and inflation performance of an economy. The...