A growing literature has emerged to assess the importance and the channels of contagion during the recent currency crises which occured in the 1990s. However, little attention has been paid to the policy implications of the way to coordinate interventions in order to defend not only a single,...

A ‘new version’ gravity model, is used to estimate the effect of a full range of de facto exchange rate regimes, as classified by Reinhart and Rogoff (2004), on bilateral trade. The results indicate that, while participation in a common currency union is typically strongly...

The conduct of time series analysis on the Euro Area currently presents problems in terms of availability of sufficiently long data sets. The ECB has provided a dataset of quarterly data from 1970 covering many data series in its Area Wide Model (AWM), but not for a number of important financial...

A dynamic stochastic model of global equilibrium, where countries outside the US face higher risk than the US itself, predicts current account surpluses in the RoW and US deficits. With Loss Aversion, such precautionary savings can cause substantial ‘global imbalances’, particularly...

Optimal growth models aim at explaining long run trends of growth under the strong assumption of full efficiency in the allocation of resources. As a result, the steady state time paths of the main economic aggregates reflect constant, exogenous or endogenous, growth. To introduce business...

Official adjustments of the budget balance to the cycle assume that the only category of gov-ernment spending that responds automatically to the cycle is unemployment compensation. But estimates show otherwise. Payments for pensions, sickness, subsistence, invalidity, childcare and subsidies of...

To match the stylised facts of goods and labour markets, the canonical New Keynesian model augments the optimising neoclassical growth model with nominal and real rigidities. We ask what the implications of this type of model are for asset prices. Using a second-order numerical solution to the...

This paper develops and estimates a simple New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model with rule-of-thumb consumers and external habits. Our theoretical model has a closed-form solution which allows the analytical derivation of its dynamical and stability properties. These...

Relying on Michigan Survey' monthly micro data on inflation expectations we try to determine the main features -- in terms of sources and degree of heterogeneity - of inflation expectation formation over different phases of the business cycle and for different demographic subgroups. We identify...

This paper shows how any steady state distribution of ages and related hazard rates can be represented as a distribution across firms of completed contract lengths. The distribution is consistnet with a Generalised Taylor Economy or a Generalised Calvo model with duration dependent reset...