This paper provides a characterization of UK and Australian monetary policy within a Taylor rule framework, accommodating uncertainties about the nature and duration of policy regimes in a flexible but easy‐to‐implement analysis. Our approach involves estimation and inference based on a set...

Direct measures of expectations, derived from survey data, are used in a vector autoregressive (VAR) model of actual and expected output series in eight industrial sectors comprising UK manufacturing. Through the application of the Beveridge Nelson decomposition, the VAR model is used to measure...

This paper highlights the importance of accounting for the protracted time frame over which fiscal policy is implemented, and over which its e®ects are felt, when estimating fiscal multipliers. It distinguishes published government tax/spending plans from subsequent outcomes, and it exploits...

Defining a recessionary event as one which impacts adversely on individuals’ economic well-being, the paper argues that recession is a multi-faceted phenomenon whose meaning differs from person to person as it impacts on their decision-making in real time. It argues that recession is best...

An output gap measure is suggested based on the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition of output using a vector-autoregressive model that includes data on actual output and on expected output obtained from surveys. The paper explains the advantages of using survey data in business cycle analysis and the...

An output gap measure is suggested based on the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition of output using a vector-autoregressive model that includes data on actual output and on expected output obtained from surveys. The paper explains the advantages of using survey data in business cycle analysis and the...