The growth of unsecured household credit relative to income has been marked in recent years and many observers have questioned whether it is sustainable. This paper develops a theory-based empirical model of equilibrium household consumption and credit. The equilibrium relationships are embedded...

Defining a recessionary event as one which impacts adversely on individuals' economic well-being, the paper argues that recession is a multi-faceted phenomenon whose meaning differs from person to person as it impacts on their decision-making in real time. It argues that recession is best...

Researchers have shown that capital constrained firms make better acquisition decisions. However, the literature on bank mergers and acquisitions is silent on this issue. We investigate whether banks constrained by capital requirements make better acquisition decisions than non-constrained...

This paper studies the impact of takeovers on the profitability of the participating companies and the influence of institutional investors on this process. It involves an original approach to assessing the profitability impact by modelling the dynamics of corporate profitability. It is shown...

This paper argues that probability forecasts convey information on the uncertainties that surround macro-economic forecasts in a straightforward manner which is preferable to other alternatives, including the use of confidence intervals. Point and probability forecasts obtained using a small...

This paper provides a characterisation of U.S. monetary policy within a generalized Taylor rule framework that accommodates uncertainties about the duration of policy regimes and the specification of the rule, in addition to the standard parameter and stochastic uncertainties inherent in...