Direct measures of expectations, derived from survey data, are used in a vector autoregressive (VAR) model of actual and expected output series in eight industrial sectors comprising UK manufacturing. Through the application of the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition, the VAR model is used to measure...

Survey data frequently requires conversion from qualitative responses to quantitative series and it is often asserted that the conversion procedures introduce measurement errors that render the series unusable in structural modelling. We investigate the nature and treatment of the measurement...

Survey data frequently requires conversion from qualitative responses to quantitative series. A commonly cited criticism of the use of the survey data is that the conversion procedures incorporate measurement errors which render the series unusable. In this paper, we provide a novel contribution...

This paper provides a characterisation of U.S. monetary policy within a generalized Tay¬lor rule framework that accommodates uncertainties about the duration of policy regimes and the speciÞcation of the rule, in addition to the standard parameter and stochastic un¬certainties inherent in...

Defining a recessionary event as one which impacts adversely on individuals’ economic well-being, the paper argues that recession is a multi-faceted phenomenon whose meaning differs from person to person as it impacts on their decision-making in real time. It argues that recession is best...