The Norwegian export price for an aggregated commodity is modelled assuming price-setting behaviour. The focus is on the choice between backward- and forward looking models. The dynamics is modelled according to three different approaches; a backward looking error correction model and two...

The paper analyses the price on domestic market for an aggregate commodity produced by Norwegian private mainland economy. The long-run solution is modelled assuming imperfect competition. The elasticities with respect to unit labour costs and competing prices vary with an indicator for...

The paper analyses the price on domestic market for an aggregate commodity produced by Norwegian private mainland economy. The long-run solution is modelled assuming imperfect competition. The elasticities with respect to unit labour costs and competing prices vary with an indicator for...

In this paper we consider regression models with forecast feedback. Agents' expectations are formed via the recursive estimation of the parameters in an auxiliary model. The learning scheme employed by the agents belongs to the class of stochastic approximation algorithms whose gain sequence is...

I present evidence of systematically heterogeneous expectations, a violation of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis. I demonstrate that the expectations of different gender and wealth cohorts have different relative abilities to predict inflation, interest rates, unemployment, income, stock...

By using the Economic Sentiment Indicator and Autoregressive Markov Switching models, this paper provides an effective tool to identify and characterize expectations of business cycle phases for Germany, Spain, the Euro Area, and the European Union. This information is useful for policy makers...

Evolutionary game theory provides a fresh perspective on the prospects that agents with heterogeneous expectations might eventually come to agree on a single expectation corresponding to the efficient markets hypothesis. We establish conditions where agreement on a unique forecast is stable, but...

The Rational Expectations Hypothesis (REH) states that the actual outcome will be identical to the optimal forecast when all obtainable information had been utilized in forming the expectations. This study intends to empirically examine the existence of rational behavior in the banks and other...

Evolutionary game theory provides a fresh perspective on the prospects that agents with heterogeneous expectations might eventually come to agree on a single expectation corresponding to the efficient markets hypothesis. We establish conditions where agreement on a unique forecast is stable, but...

This papaer evaluates analysts' consensus long run earnings growth forecasts. It is shown that the correlation between forecast earnings growth and actual earnings growth is extremely low. Consistent with other studies, forecast earnings growth is found to be too optimistic. This is illustrated...