Abstract We efficiently incorporate into an ARIMA model judgemental information or alternative model based forecasts. We consider a general set of linear restrictions, which are also allowed to be stochastic. Restricted forecasts are obtained by Generalised Least Squares.

Direct use of price indices does not enable to distinguish changes in relative prices from generalised price rises. Core inflation measures typically entail excluding some components or deriving trend measures. This paper uses a structural VAR with long-run identifying restrictions to arrive at...

This paper presents a Bayesian vector autoregression model for the Spanish economy to aid in policy making. Forecasts of this model can be used as a useful input in constructing a macroeconomic scenario. The model is also useful in monetary programming.

The introduction of euro banknotes and coins in Spain on January 2002 led to the conversion into euros of peseta denominated prices. The changeover should have been neutral with respect to price levels, although some factors, such as menu costs, overhead costs or use of attractive prices, led to...

Opinion-based surveys, or quantitative surveys, are potentially very powerful tools for conjunctural analysis in view of their rapid availability and nature. This paper addresses the usefulness of these surveys for monitoring the Spanish economy. To do this it analyses the two most important...

A pesar de la enorme y creciente importancia de las ramas de actividad de servicios en las economías desarrolladas, hasta fechas recientes los recursos destinados a su análisis han sido muy inferiores a los dirigidos a las ramas industriales. Las mejoras en lo que se refiere a la...

The expansion of Spanish banks in Latin America is one of the most important elements of bank internationalisation in recent years. Spanish banks now head the ranking of foreign banks in the region. At first glance, it is paradoxical that at a time of notable progress in the process of European...

A comienzos de los anos 90 el Plan Brady cerro la crisis de deuda externa que sufrieron los mercados latinoamericanos en los anos 80. En los 90, y gracias en parte a dicho Plan, retornaron los capitales internacionales hacia America Latina. A pesar de ello, a finales de 1994, tiene lugar en...

The expansion of Spanish banks in Latin America is one of the most important elements of bank internationalisation in recent years. At first glance, it is paradoxical that at a time of notable progress in the process of European integration, there is an intensification of Spanish investment...