The paper discusses how the Peter and Dilbert Principles can occur and what are the consequences for a profit maximizing firm. A competence frontier is constructed as a linear combination of the maximum levels of technical and social skills that are difficult to measure and evaluate. The Peter...

This paper develops an adaptive model on asset pricing and wealth dynamic of a financial market with heterogeneous agents and examines the profitability of momentum and contrarian trading strategies. In order to characterize asset price, wealth dynamics and rational adaptiveness arising from the...

We propose that the formation of beliefs be treated as statistical hypothesis tests, and we label such beliefs inferential expectations. If a belief is overturned through the build-up of evidence, agents are assumed to switch to the rational expectation. Rational expectations are shown to be a...

This paper introduces a new class of numerical schemes for the pathwise approximation of solutions of stochastic differential equations (SDEs). The proposed family of strong predictor-corrector Euler methods are designed to handle scenario simulation of solutions of SDEs. It has the potential to...

We formulate the problem of finding classes of kinetic dependencies in irreversible thermodynamic and microeconomic systems for which minimal dissipation processes belong to the same type. We show that this problem is an inverse optimal control problem and solve it. The commonality of this...

Empirical evidence has suggested that, facing different trading strategies and complicated decision, the proportions of agents relying on particular strategies may stay at constant level or vary over time. This paper presents a simple "dynamic market fraction" model of two groups of traders,...

This paper considers a modified constant elasticity of variance (MCEV) model. This model uses the familiar constant elasticity of variance form for the volatility of the growth optimal portfolio (GOP) in a continuous market. It leads to a GOP that follows the power of a time-transformed squared...

A financial market model where agents can only trade using realistic buyand-hold strategies is considered. Minimal assumptions are made on the nature of the asset-price process — in particular, the semimartingale property is not assumed. Via a natural assumption of limited opportunities for...

There is a huge literature on the existence of risk premia in the foreign exchange markets and its influence in explaining the divergence between the forward exchange rate and the subsequently realised spot exchange rate. In this paper, we seek to model directly the risk premium as a...

This paper constructs and compares various total return world stock indices based on daily data. Due to diversification these indices are noticeably similar. A diversification theorem identifies any diversified portfolio as a proxy for the growth optimal portfolio. The paper constructs a...