Murchison and Robbins present an innovative procedure to jointly estimate an indicator of fiscal impact or, equivalently, of the Fiscal Policy Stance (FiPS), and an indicator of the cyclically adjusted budget balance. The procedure is based on the simultaneous estimation of a set of fiscal...

This paper examines the role of legislated fiscal rules in determining fiscal performance. It reviews the rationale for fiscal rules and discusses the advantages and drawbacks associated with them, notably the possibility that rules may impede countercyclical fiscal policy. The paper then...

This is the first of three papers describing NAOMI1, a new quarterly forecasting model developed in the Economic Analysis and Forecasting Division at the Department of Finance. NAOMI’s intended purpose is twofold. First, it is capable of producing reliable, judgement-free macroeconomic...

This paper provides an introduction to the Canadian side of NAOMI (North American Open economy Macro-econometric Integrated model), a new economic model developed at the Department of Finance. NAOMI is intended to bridge the gap between pure forecasting models whose forecasts are often difficult...

Kennedy, Robbins and Delorme examine the importance of fiscal rules in determining budgetary outcomes. After briefly reviewing the rationale for rules, the paper compares the rules introduced in several countries at the national and subnational levels. It notes that while several countries have...

This paper presents an analysis of the uncertainty in projections of the federal budget balance arising due to uncertainty in economic, and government revenue and spending projections. Budget projections frequently differ from actual results due to an unavoidable level of uncertainty contained...