This paper presents a numerical algorithm for computing full information maximum likelihood (FIML) and nonlinear three-stage least squares (3SLS) coefficient estimates for large nonlinear macroeconomic models. The new algorithm, which is demonstrated by actually computing FIML and 3SLS...

This paper estimates, using stochastic simulation and a multicountry macroeconometric model, the fraction of the forecast-error variance of output changes and the fraction of the forecast-error variance of inflation that are due to unpredictable asset-price changes. The results suggest that...

It is well known that modeling exchange rates is difficult. Meese and Rogoff's (1983) results show that a random walk model performs as well as or better than a variety of structural models, where the forecasts from the structural models are based on the actual values of the future explanatory...

This paper estimates the amount by which the effectiveness of monetary policy in changing real output has declined due to the increased size of the federal government debt.

This paper examines the equation-by-equation accuracy of the Michigan and Fair model using the method in Fair (1980). Emphasis is placed on examining the possible misspecification of the equations. In an earlier study, Fair and Alexander (1984), we used the method to examine the accuracy of the...