Disruptions of a railway system are responsible for longer travel times and much discomfort for the passengers. Since disruptions are inevitable, the railway system should be prepared to deal with them effectively. This paper explains that, in case of a disruption, rescheduling the timetable,...

This paper surveys recent developments related to the smooth transition autoregressive [STAR] time series model and several of its variants. We put emphasis on new methods for testing for STAR nonlinearity, model evaluation, and forecasting. Several useful extensions of the basic STAR model,...

The standard RFM models used by direct marketers include behavioral variables, but ignore the role of marketing communications. In addition, RFM models allow customer responsiveness to vary across different customers, but not across diiferent time periods. Hence, the authors first extend RFM...

The Elliptic Logarithm Method has been applied with great success to the problem of computing all integer solutions of equations of degree 3 and 4 defining elliptic curves. We extend this method to include any equation f(u,v)=0 that defines a curve of genus 1. Here f is a polynomial with integer...

We consider a consumer electronics (CE) manufacturer’s problem of controlling the inventory of spare parts in the final phase of the service life cycle. The final phase starts when the part production is terminated and continues until the last service contract or warranty period expires....

Both in business to business and in consumer markets direct mailings are an important means of communication with individual customers. This paper studies the mailing frequency problem that addresses the issue of how often to send a mailing to an individual customer in order to establish a...

In this paper we consider a nonlinear model based on neural networks as well as linear models to forecast the daily volatility of the S&P 500 and FTSE 100 indexes. As a proxy for daily volatility, we consider a consistent and unbiased estimator of the integrated volatility that is computed from...

After the commercial whaling moratorium was enacted in 1986, whale watching became one of the fastest growing tourism industries worldwide. As whaling was regarded as an activity incompatible with whale watching, the possible resumption of commercial whaling caused an urgent need to investigate...

In this paper the issue of detecting and handling outliers in the GARCH(1,1) model is addressed. Simulation evidence shows that neglecting even a single outlier has a dramatic on parameter estimates. To detect and correct for outliers, we propose an adaptation of the iterative in Chen and Liu...

We value rating-triggered step-up bonds with three methods: (i) the Jarrow, Lando and Turnbull (1997, JLT) framework, (ii) a similar framework using historical probabilities and (iii) as plain vanilla bonds. We find that the market seems to value single step-up bonds according to the JLT model,...