Experts often add domain knowledge to model-based forecasts while aiming to reduce forecast errors. Indeed, there is some empirical evidence that expert-adjusted forecasts improve forecast quality. However, surprisingly little is known about what experts actually do. Based on a large and...

This paper conjectures that the behaviour of experts who adjust statistical-model-based forecasts obeys the Law of Small Numbers [LSN]. To put this hypothesis to an empirical test, I propose a simple but effective methodology. It is applied to a database containing information on many experts...

The brand choice problem in marketing has recently been addressed with methods from computational intelligence such as neural networks. Another class of methods from computational intelligence, the so-called ensemble methods such as boosting and stacking have never been applied to the brand...

In this paper we give a short novel proof of the well-known Lagrange multiplier rule, discuss the sources of the power of this rule and consider several applications of this rule. The new proof does not use the implicit function theorem and combines the advantages of two of the most well-known...