We propose news sentiment as a new explanatory variable for interest rates. Using articles related to interest rates, inflation, and the labor market we demonstrate the in-sample predictive power of sentiment on the short-rate applying the Taylor rule and a threshold autoregressive model. This...

Motivated by the need of an unbiased and positive-semidefinite estimator of multivariate realized covariance matrices, we model noisy and asynchronous ultra-high-frequency asset prices in a state-space framework with missing data. We then estimate the covariance matrix of the latent states...

We propose a local likelihood estimation for the log-transformed ARCH(1) model in the financial field. Our nonparametric estimator is constructed within the likelihood framework for non-Gaussian observations: It is different from standard kernel regression smoothing, where the innovations are...

This paper proposes a double tree structured AR-GARCH model for the analysis of stock index return series, which extends previous approaches to incorporate (i) an arbitrary number of multivariate thresholds in conditional means and volatilities of stock index returns and (ii) a richer...

Realized volatility computed from high-frequency data is an important measure for many applications in finance. However, its dynamics are not well understood to date. Recent notable advances that perform well include the heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) model which is economically...