This paper reports real-time out-of-sample tests of the ability of the U.S. Index Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) to …

versions, the U.S. Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) fails to improve forecasts in real time out-of-sample tests. This …

Clusters of cyclical turning points in the coincident indicators help us identify and date Euro Area recessions and … recoveries in the past several decades. In the U.S. and some other countries, composite indexes of coincident indicators (CEI …) are used to date classical business cycle turning points; also indexes of leading indicators (LEI) are used to help in the …

, across a variety of simple forecasting models, the new approach offers substantial improvements. …

utility in forecasting resulting form their properties. Leading indicators are aggregates describing a part of economy (e …The biggest business activity fluctuation analysts’ attention is focused on leading indicators. It is due to their … paper is to identify industrial business cycle leading indicators in Poland. The second aim is to estimate a leading index …

utility in forecasting resulting form their properties. Leading indicators are aggregates describing a part of economy (e …The biggest business activity fluctuation analysts’ attention is focused on leading indicators. It is due to their … paper is to identify industrial business cycle leading indicators in Poland. The second aim is to estimate a leading index …

Qualitative business survey data are used widely to provide indicators of economic activity ahead of the publication of … official data. Traditional indicators exploit only aggregate survey information, namely the proportions of respondents who … shows that the proposed indicator can provide early estimates of output growth more accurately than traditional indicators. …

Qualitative business survey data are used widely to provide indicators of economic activity ahead of the publication of … official data. Traditional indicators exploit only aggregate survey information, namely the proportions of respondents who … manufacturing output growth can provide more accurate early estimates of manufacturing output growth than traditional indicators. …

This work examines a recent study that used various forecasting methods and in particular the Delphi method, to … understand how the indicators were selected during the development of the prospective study. It can be concluded that the … indicators in the study were selected through discussion on existing knowledge (formal and informal) and the broad consensus of …