Zum Werk: Die derzeitige wirtschaftliche Situation mit den sehr stark gestiegenen Energie- und Rohstoffpreisen sowie den Lieferschwierigkeiten für eine Vielzahl von Vor- und Zwischenprodukten führen bei zahlreichen Unternehmen zu einer Verschlechterung der wirtschaftlichen Situation. Bereits...

This paper describes a corporate sector vulnerability indicator, the expected number of defaults (END), based on the joint occurrence of defaults among a number of firms and/or institutions. The END indicator is general enough to assess systemic risk in the corporate and financial sectors, as...

This paper discusses payments arrears in the Russian Federation and Ukraine, with emphasis on the gas and electric power sectors. Payments arrears, which were triggered primarily by the dislocations experienced during the transition from a centrally planned to a market economy, have reached...

We present a framework to derive the probability of default implied by the price of equity options. The framework does not require any strong statistical assumption, and provide results that are informative on the expected developments of balance sheet variables, such as assets, equity and...

This paper presents a general equilibrium model of interenterprise arrears, characterized by n-stage production technology with random productivity shocks. The model shows that large interenterprise arrears in transition economies may reflect substantial business risks in those countries and...

Delays in debt restructuring negotiations are widely regarded as inefficient. This paper argues that delays can allow the economy to recover from a crisis, make more resources available for debt settlement, and enable the negotiating parties to enjoy a larger ""cake"". Within this context,...

This paper outlines a procedure for calculating the cash value of “menu items” in debt restructuring proposals, including par and non-par exchanges, with enhancements consisting of either interest or principal guarantees. It is argued that under certain plausible assumptions interest and...

The profound structural reform underway in Eastern Europe has revealed the weakness of the banking sector there; macroeconomic stability and other reforms are thereby threatened. After an overview of recent developments in the banking sectors of these countries, a model is developed that...