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recessions accelerate this process. In doing so we establish a new fact about the demand for skill over the business cycle. Using …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011760041
This paper examines the long-run effects of the 1980-1982 recession on education and income. Using confidential Census data, I estimate difference-in-differences regressions that exploit variation across counties in recession severity and across cohorts in age at the time of the recession. For...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012059156
corporate) and the depth of recessions. To do this, we differentiate between financial recessions and normal recessions on the … basis of how quickly their private debt builds up. In addition to output recessions, we look at consumption and investment … recessions. We find that financial recessions are deeper than normal recessions in advanced economies−and the differences …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012064748
current business cycle phase and of foreign recessions on the likelihood that expansions and recessions come to an end. With … to recessions in a G7 country, we find that the likelihood of them coming to an end is not affected by other G7 countries …' recessions. We find duration dependence of recessions for all G7 countries, i.e. recessions that have gone on for a while are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012142049
comprehensive real-time forecasting exercise for recessions in the US. Moreover, we propose a novel smooth transition modelling …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012180928
We present real time survey evidence from the UK, US and Germany showing that the labor market impacts of COVID-19 differ considerably across countries. Employees in Germany, which has a well-established short-time work scheme, are substantially less likely to be affected by the crisis. Within...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012207864
We present real time survey evidence from the UK, US and Germany showing that the labor market impacts of COVID-19 differ considerably across countries. Employees in Germany, which has a well-established short-time work scheme, are substantially less likely to be affected by the crisis. Within...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012214176
A well-established result in the literature is that Social Security reduces steady state welfare in a standard life cycle model. However, less is known about the historical quantitative effects of the program on agents who were alive when the program was adopted. In a computational life cycle...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012215400
The ability of the term structure (specifically the term spread, or the difference between the long and short ends of the yield curve) to predict economic activity is empirically well-established for the US, but less so for small open economies. The literature emphasizes the role of monetary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012220374
Recent evidence for the U.S. suggests that recessions play a crucial role in promoting automation and the reallocation … technology revolution, fully all of the Canadian decline in routine job employment occurred during the three recessions. A …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012245091