Focusing on a set of central banks that publish their internal macroeconomic forecasts in real time enables one to shed light on the expectations channel of monetary policy. The main contribution of this paper is to assess whether central bank forecasts influence private forecasts. The response...

Policymakers at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) publish macroeconomic forecasts since 1979. Some studies find that these forecasts do not contain useful information to predict these macroeconomic variables compared to other forecasts. In this paper, we examine the value of publishing...

This paper contributes to the debate on the French public finances'consolidation by investigating the long-term sustainability of France’s fiscal position. We trace the historical trends of government’s tax receipts and expenditures. We find that while the level of public expenditure in...

Policymakers at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) publish forecasts since 1979. We examine the effects of publishing FOMC inflation forecasts in two steps using a structural VAR model. We assess whether they influence private inflation expectations and the underlying mechanism at work: do...

The European Central Bank publishes inflation projections quarterly. This paper aims at establishing whether they influence private forecasts and whether they may be considered as an enhanced means of implementing policy decisions by facilitating private agents’ information processing. We...

Policymakers at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) publish forecasts since 1979. We examine the effects of publishing FOMC inflation forecasts in two steps using a structural VAR model. We assess whether they influence private inflation expectations and the underlying mechanism at work: do...

What are the effects of country size on growth and business cycle volatility? To investigate this question, previously asked by Rose (2006) and Furceri and Karras (2007), we developed an original country-size index with principal component analysis (PCA). Traditional analysis of this topic...

This article studies the impact of oil shocks on the macroeconomy in two ways insofar unexploited in the literature. The analysis is conducted at the global level, and it explicitly accounts for the potentially changing nature of oil shocks. Constructing an original world GDP series and grouping...