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This paper provides a how-to guide to model-based forecasting and monetary policy analysis. It describes a simple structural model, along the lines of those in use in a number of central banks. This workhorse model consists of an aggregate demand (or IS) curve, a price-setting (or Phillips)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005599522
The ECB's objective of medium-term inflation below 2 percent has been portrayed by critics as ambiguous, asymmetric … that: (1) in terms of guiding inflation expectations and policymaking, the current definition has functioned much as would … an inflation target centered on 1 1/2-1 3/4 percent; (2) the absence of a specific (point) target for medium …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005768947
level of real returns consistent with their investment objectives. While inflation-linked bonds and derivatives have been … developed to hedge the effects of inflation, their limited supply and liquidity lead many investors to continue to rely on the … returns following inflation surprises. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004999969
During the first half of 2008, Sri Lanka witnessed significantly higher inflation than most other emerging Asian … countries. Inflation has since declined amid declining world commodity prices and tight monetary policy. Given the sensitivity … to global commodity prices, a core inflation measure could be useful for monetary policy. The purpose of this paper is to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008528674
This paper explores the role of exchange rates in emerging economies with inflation-targeting regimes, an issue that … has become especially germane during the current episode of financial turmoil and volatile capital flows. Under inflation … targeting, the interest rate is the main monetary policy tool for influencing activity and inflation, and there is little …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011245907
regime in minimizing inflation and output trade-offs. The estimates of the structural parameters fall within plausible ranges …, and simulation results suggest that while the peg amplifies output, consumption and (price and wage) inflation volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008839360
The Maastricht inflation criterion, designed in the early 1990s to bring "high-inflation" EU countries in line with … "low-inflation" countries prior to the introduction of the euro, poses challenges for both new EU member countries and the … European Central Bank. While the criterion has positively influenced the public stance toward low inflation, it has biased the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005605112
The paper evaluates the 24-month ahead inflation forecasting performance of various indicators of underlying inflation … and structural models. The inflation forecast errors resulting from model misspecification are larger than the errors …) overperform other measures over the monetary policy horizon and are leading indicators of headline inflation. Trimmed means …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005599687
inflation. Unlike in the case of fuel-producing countries, the East African Community countries are major agricultural producers …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010790455
A model in which monetary policy pursues full-fledged inflation targeting adapts well to Ghana. Model features include …: endogenous policy credibility; non-linearities in the inflation process; and a policy loss function that aims to minimize the … variability of output and the interest rate, as well as deviations of inflation from the long-term low-inflation target. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008519489