This paper analyzes the Euro crisis in light of the experience of center-periphery relations over the last 40 years of renewed financial globalization. The crisis shows the characteristic pattern evident in so many other crises in the developing world: i.e. “boom” and “bust” phases of...

This report discusses the economic impact of the Coronavirus/COVID-19 crisis across industries, and countries. It also provides estimates of the potential global economic costs of COVID-19, and the GDP growth of different countries. The current draft includes estimates for 30 countries, under...

English Abstract: The report analyses the dynamics of financial markets in the first half of 2021, highlighting the main vulnerabilities in the context of the crisis triggered by the pandemic in Europe and the development of sustainable finance and crypto assets at a global level. The Report...

I review the literature on financial speculation driven by belief disagreements from a macroeconomics perspective. To highlight unifying themes, I develop a stylized macroeconomic model that embeds several mechanisms. With short-selling constraints, speculation can generate overvaluation and...

We describe our experience with integrating a semester-long economic analysis project into an intermediate macroeconomic theory course. Students work in teams of "economic advisors" to write a series of nested reports for a decision-maker that analyze the current state of the economy, and...

Should monetary policymakers raise interest rates during a boom to rein in financial excesses? We theoretically investigate this question using an aggregate demand model with asset price booms and financial speculation. In our model, monetary policy affects financial stability through its impact...

I conduct a risk analysis of Brazil’s sovereign credit. My focus is on possible changes since 2016. Using a country-level balance sheet framework, I analyze how Brazil’s liabilities pressure its assets, increasing borrowing needs and default probability. Rises in external debt, especially...

We provide a continuous-time "risk-centric" representation of the New Keynesian model, which we use to analyze the interactions between asset prices, financial speculation, and macroeconomic outcomes when output is determined by aggregate demand. In principle, interest rate policy is highly...

Structural vector autoregressive analysis aims to trace the contemporaneous linkages among (macroeconomic) variables back to underlying orthogonal structural shocks. In homoskedastic Gaussian models the identification of these linkages deserves external and typically notdata-based information....

Despite of being affected by the economic crisis, the Netherlands managed to minimize its effects. This situation is highlighted in a comparison with Romania and the European Union, between the levels of the most important economic indicators. Moreover, when other countries registered negative...