We consider the problem of determining the horizon beyond which forecasts from time series models of stationary processes add nothing to the forecast implicit in the conditional mean. We refer to this as the content horizon for forecasts, and define a forecast content function at horizons s =...

We develop a new method, based on the use of polar coordinates, to investigate the existence of moments for instrumental variables and related estimators in the linear regression model. For generalized IV estimators, we obtain familiar results. For JIVE, we obtain the new result that this...

Many processes can be represented in a simple form as infinite-order linear series. In such cases, an approximate model is often derived as a truncation of the infinite-order process, for estimation on the finite sample. The literature contains a number of asymptotic distributional results for...

For stationary transformations of variables, there exists a maximum horizon beyond which forecasts can provide no more information about the variable than is present in the unconditional mean. Meteorological forecasts, typically excepting only experimental or exploratory situations, are not...

Western European income per capita more than tripled in the two and a half decades that followed World War II. The scholarship has identified several potential factors behind this outstanding growth episode, specifically; the large migrations from agriculture to manufacture that took place in...

I use the 1993 and 2003 National Surveys of College Graduates to examine the higher exit rate of women compared to men from science and engineering relative to other fields. I find that the higher relative exit rate is driven by engineering rather than science, and show that 60\% of the gap can...

We investigate the long term effects of Peru's internal conflict on women's outcomes. According to Peru's Truth and Reconciliation Commission (CVR), the conflict was responsible for over 69,000 deaths and disappearances from 1980-2000 and between 500,000 to 1 million internally displaced...

We examine a simple estimator for the multivariate moving average model based on vector autoregressive approximation. In finite samples the estimator has a bias which is low where roots of the determinantal equation are well away from the unit circle, and more substantial where one or more roots...

Owing to the high cost of transporting farm produce before the railway age, the land-intensiveness of European mixed farming caused both production and consumption of foodstuffs and intermediate farm inputs in the steady state to be highly dispersed, a spatial configuration offering weak...

This paper exploits a natural experiment, the large destruction of capital in continental Europe during World War II, to characterize the transitional dynamics of an economy that begins with a capital stock below its steady state level. We use these regularities as a benchmark to discriminate...