Low probability events are overweighted in the pricing of out-of-the-money index puts and single stock calls. We find that this behavioral bias is strongly time-varying, linked to equity market sentiment, and higher moments of the risk-neutral density. An implied volatility (IV) sentiment...

After showing that the distribution of the S&P 500's distortion, i.e. the log difference between its real stock market index and its real fundamental value, is bimodal, we demonstrate that agentbased financial market models may explain this puzzling observation. Within these models, speculators...

The authors investigate multiplicate relationships between investor attention and gold futures return. The Vector Auto Regression (VAR) estimates demonstrate that investor attention exhibits significant impact on gold futures returns and the effect can be positive or negative depending on how...

We present a novel approach towards the financial Ising model. Most studies utilize the model to find settings which generate returns closely mimicking the financial stylized fact such as fat tails, volatility clustering and persistence, and others. We tackle the model utility from the other...

Unlike previous studies which have examined the role of financial analysts in developed economies, the aim of this paper is to investigate whether following the Tunisian stock market opening, both the analyst forecast accuracy and the market's reliance on analyst forecasts, increase with time....

This paper documents and characterizes the time-varying structure of U.S. and international asset co-movements. Although some of the time variation could be genuine, the sampling uncertainty and time series properties of the series can distort significantly the underlying signal dynamics. We...

The level of daily stock returns is generally regarded as unpredictable. Instead of the level, we focus on the signs of these returns and generate forecasts using various statistical classification techniques, such as logistic regression, generalized additive models, or neural networks. The...

Earning forecasts disclosed by financial analysts are known to be overly optimistic. Since an investor relies on their expertise, the question arises whether he would take analyst recommendations at face value or instead structure consultation with differently upward-biased analysts in a way...

Tests of excessive volatility along the lines of Shiller (1981) and Leroy and Porter (1981) count among the most convincing pieces of evidence against the validity of the time-honored efficient market hypothesis. Recently, using Shiller’s distinction between ex-ante rational (fundamental)...

This study provides evidence for a positive association between mutual fund holdings'implied cost of capital (ICC) and future performance. Consistent with large transactioncosts of ICC-based investments impeding their exploitation and employing a ICC-basedstrategy reflecting skill, family-level...