We simulate the effects of a hypothetical H1N1 epidemic in the U.S. using a quarterly CGE model. Quarterly periodicity allows us to capture the short-run nature of an epidemic. We find potentially severe economic effects in the peak quarter. Averaged over the epidemic year the effects are...

Fifty years ago the Norwegian economist, Leif Johansen, gave us what is now recognised as the first CGE model. While Johansen was first, he is not the father of the whole field. CGE modelling in different styles sprang largely independently from several sources. This paper describes how...

Conditions for the dairy industry in northern Victoria over the past decade have been tough. High prices for feed inputs, especially when combined with low farmgate milk prices, have seen situations where dairy farmers are losing money feeding cows. In this environment, it is natural to consider...

This paper explains the theoretical framework of the Financial Applied General Equilibrium (FAGE) model as developed in Xiao (2009). FAGE is a MONASH-style dynamic CGE model for China with a detailed financial extension. In section 1, we discuss a stylized version of the financial module....

In this study, we analysed the terms of trade effects of China's rapid growth on its neighbouring countries using a dynamic global CGE model, the MMC model. We first simulated a "real" or convergence scenario -showing how the economies of China and its neighbours might evolve based on historical...

Computable general equilibrium models can be used to generate detailed forecasts of output growth for commodities/industries. The main objective is to provide realistic baselines from which to calculate the effects of policy changes. In this paper, we assess a CGE forecasting method that has...

A new era of water scarcity has changed past patterns of feeding dairy cows in northern Victoria. This paper derives a model for estimating least-cost feeding of dairy cows under a range of assumptions regarding prices for irrigation water, hay and feed grain. The cost-minimisation is subject to...

Using a large-scale CGE model, we investigate the short-run and long-run regional economic consequences of a catastrophic event - attack via radiological dispersal device (RDD) - centered on the downtown Los Angeles area. We distinguish two main routes via which such a catastrophic event might...

Simulations with dynamic, single-country, CGE models typically imply that reductions in domestic demand, e.g. a cut in investment, generate increases in exports and reductions in imports facilitated by real depreciation. However, currently in the U.S. a large reduction in investment is occurring...

The computer implementation of any large economic model is usually a very expensive and time consuming task. This paper describes a software package, called GEMPACK, which is being developed specifically to reduce dramatically the research time, effort and cost required to set up one solution...