from an aggregation of country-specific forecasts. Factor models in particular prove rather accurate, where the factors …

from an aggregation of country-specific forecasts. Factor models in particular prove rather accurate, where the factors …

forecasts (bottom-up approaches). Overall, all methods perform better than a simple benchmark for short horizons (up to three … out-perform bottom-up ones for real variables, but not for prices. Finally, when country-specific forecasts are adjusted … to match direct forecasts at the aggregate levels (top-down approaches), the forecast accuracy is neither improved nor …

performance of factor models. We complement the analysis with an empirical evaluation of forecasts for the key macroeconomic … factor-based forecasts in short samples with structural change. …

forecasts (bottom-up approaches). Overall, all methods perform better than a simple benchmark for short horizons (up to three … out-perform bottom-up ones for real variables, but not for prices. Finally, when country-specific forecasts are adjusted … to match direct forecasts at the aggregate levels (top-down approaches), the forecast accuracy is neither improved nor …

performance of factor models. We complement the analysis with an empirical evaluation of forecasts for the key macroeconomic … factor-based forecasts also in short samples with structural change. …

variables, model it using a dynamic factor model, and compare the resulting forecasts with those from a set of standard time …, the factor-based forecasts are shown to improve upon standard benchmarks for prices, real aggregates, and financial …

information criteria. Then one-step ahead forecasts have been generated. It was found, that the ARs generate the best forecasts at …