We provide benchmarks to evaluate what is an optimal foreign debt and a maximal foreign debt (debt-max), when risk is explicitly considered. When the actual debt exceeds debt-max, then the economy will default when a bad shock occurs. This paper is an application of the stochastic optimal...

We first give a brief presentation of the existing single-equation structural models of exchange-rate determination and a survey of how the exchange rate is modeled in the main economy-wide macroeconometric models. We then show, with respect to the lira/$ exchange rate, that the out-of-sample...

Since the mid-1990s, internationally active banks around the world have pursued policies to expand their presence in emerging markets. Growing volumes of cross border banking activities have triggered a burgeoning literature on financial FDI, mainly focused on merits and pitfalls of foreign-bank...

The problem is to evaluate the likelihood that a country will face a currency or balance of payments crisis over a given horizon. When is it rational for market participants to expect a depreciation of the currency? On the basis of considerable empirical studies we know that in both banking and...

The problem is to evaluate the likelihood that a country will face a currency or balance of payments crisis over a given horizon. When is it rational for market participants to expect a depreciation of the currency? On the basis of considerable empirical studies we know that in both banking and...

We provide benchmarks to evaluate what is an optimal foreign debt and a maximal foreign debt (debt-max), when risk is explicitly considered. When the actual debt exceeds debt-max, then the economy will default when a "bad shock" occurs. This paper is an application of the stochastic optimal...