Estimating and controlling large risks has become one of the main concern of financial institutions. This requires the development of adequate statistical models and theoretical tools (which go beyond the traditionnal theories based on Gaussian statistics), and their practical implementation....

We present compelling empirical evidence for a new interpretation of the Forward Rate Curve (FRC) term structure. We find that the average FRC follows a square-root law, with a prefactor related to the spot volatility, suggesting a Value-at-Risk like pricing. We find a striking correlation...

We present an analysis of the time behavior of the S&P 500 (Standard and Poors) New York stock exchange index before and after the October 1987 market crash and identify precursory patterns as well as aftershock signatures and characteristic oscillations of relaxation. Combined, they all suggest...

In this paper we study empirically the Forward Rate Curve (FRC) of 5 different currencies. We confirm and extend the findings of our previous investigation of the U.S. Forward Rate Curve. In particular, the average FRC follows a square-root law, with a prefactor related to the spot volatility,...

We consider the problem of option pricing and hedging when stock returns are correlated in time. Within a quadratic-risk minimisation scheme, we obtain a general formula, valid for weakly correlated non-Gaussian processes. We show that for Gaussian price increments, the correlations are...

We propose a non linear Langevin equation as a model for stock market fluctuations and crashes. This equation is based on an identification of the different processes influencing the demand and supply, and their mathematical transcription. We emphasize the importance of feedback effects of price...

We argue that on electronic markets, limit and market orders should have equal effective costs on average. This symmetry implies a linear relation between the bid-ask spread and the average impact of market orders. Our empirical observations on different markets are consistent with this...

We show that results from the theory of random matrices are potentially of great interest to understand the statistical structure of the empirical correlation matrices appearing in the study of price fluctuations. The central result of the present study is the remarkable agreement between the...

In recent studies the truncated Levy process (TLP) has been shown to be very promising for the modeling of financial dynamics. In contrast to the Levy process, the TLP has finite moments and can account for both the previously observed excess kurtosis at short timescales, along with the slow...

In this paper I develop a new computational method for pricing path dependent options. Using the path integral representation of the option price, I show that in general it is possible to perform analytically a partial averaging over the underlying risk-neutral diffusion process. This result...