Our answer: Not so well. We reached that conclusion after reviewing recent research on the role of technology as a source of economic fluctuations. The bulk of the evidence suggests a limited role for aggregate technology shocks, pointing instead to demand factors as the main force behind the...

This paper reviews a number of different methods that can be used to estimate potential output and the output gap. Measures of potential output and the output gap are useful to help identify the scope for sustainable noninflationary growth and to allow an assessment of the stance of...

We propose a Bayesian procedure for multiple outlier detection in linear models avoiding the masking problem. Our proposal is illustrated with several examples in which our procedure outperforms other recent methods for multiple outlier detection. The posterior probalities of each data point...