We examine how equity-market frictions that restrict pessimistic trading, such as short-sale constraints, affect assessments of default risk. We find that these frictions decrease the usefulness of equity-market variables for identifying defaulting firms but increase their usefulness for...

We estimate the causal impact of restructuring aid granted by the European Commission between 2003 and 2012 on the survival and financial viability of aided firms. Using a comprehensive dataset we find that restructuring aid increases a firm’s average survival time by 8 to 15 years and...

Credit risk assessment is a crucial part of macroprudential analysis, with the aggregate nonperforming loan (NPL) ratio serving as a proxy for the economy-wide probability of default of the banking sector's overall loan exposure. Therefore, the factors driving the NPL ratio deserve a lot of...

We demonstrate improvements in predictive power when introducing spline functions to take account of highly non-linear relationships between firm failure and earnings, leverage, and liquidity in a logistic bankruptcy model. Our results show that modeling excessive non-linearities yields...

Large and complex financial institutions (LCFIs) create a significant challenge for the international regulatory community. Their complex group structures often consist of multiple legal entities operating in a variety of different jurisdictions. The close linkages among business areas within an...

The intense discussion of the ‘too big to fail' syndrome has diverted attention from the equally important issue of complexity. Size alone does not matter. It is the complexity of the legal structure of cross-border financial groups and the high degree of integration of their operations that...

An effective bank resolution regime requires taking action while the bank still has positive net worth and shareholder claims still have economic value. Such actions raise a number of legal issues with respect to the rights of shareholders. This paper aims to consider how to strike a balance...

Banks fulfill special functions in an economy. The primary objective of a bank insolvency regime must be to preserve these essential functions. This objective should guide the design of the legal framework for bank insolvency. The banking supervisory authority or a designated resolution...

The global financial and economic crisis marks an important turning point for finance and the Asian growth model. Regional consensus is now supporting economic rebalancing away from the dominant focus on exports to developed markets and towards more a more balanced economic structure supported...

This Comment reviews recent proposals to address the “empty creditor” problem. The author argues that previous proposals would do little to reduce the risk that empty creditors will block debt-for-equity exchanges in order to collect credit default swap payments. The author presents an...