This note revisits the temporal causality between exchange rates and fundamentals put forward by Engel and West (2005). We analyze the causal link within multivariate VARs by making use of the concept of multi-step causality. Our results show that, considering information content beyond...

This paper presents a new approach for modelling the connectedness between asset returns. We adapt the measure of Diebold and Y¸lmaz (2014), which is based on the forecast error variance decomposition of a VAR model. However, their connectedness measure hinges on critical assumptions with...

This paper reports a study on the causal dynamics between spot oil price, exchange rates, and stock prices in Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, and Serbia. The results are compared with a benchmark analysis in which U.S. monthly data are used, and time periods are selected according...

We show that empirical results concerning the behavior of floating exchange rates differ between otherwise identical cointegrated and non-cointegrated VAR models. In particular, virtually all ten-year movements in nominal exchange rates are due to fundamental supply and demand shocks when long...

This paper uses Reuters exchange rate data to investigate thecontributions to the price discovery process by individual banks in theforeign exchange market. We propose multivariate time series models aswell as models in tick time to study the dynamic relations between thequotes of individual...

This paper is the first attempt to assess the impact of official FOREX interventions of the three major central banks in terms of the dynamics of the currency components of the major exchange rates (EUR/USD and YEN/USD) over the period 1989-2003. We identify the currency components of the mean...

This paper provides a global analysis of capital flow impacts on GDP for selected emerging economies. As additional control variables, we also include currency reserves and effective exchange rates in our analysis. We distinguish between gross and net capital flows and also assess the impact of...

This paper uses Markov switching models to study short-run movements of the Polish zloty and speculative phenomena in Poland, that is, to investigate whether the exchange rate is "contaminated" by a speculative bubble. The zloty movements are examined in terms of so-called long swings - periods...

The paper aims to investigate the possible dual causality between exchange rates and stock indices of China and ASEAN using Structural Vector Auto-Regressive Model (SVAR). The paper has analysed the dynamic relationships between the Yuan and the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Stock Index...

This paper estimates the dynamics of adjustment to long run purchasing power parity (PPP) using data for 18 mayor bilateral US dollar exchange rates, over the post-Bretton Woods period, in a non-linear framework. We use new unit root and cointegration tests that do not assume a specific...