This paper uses a risk-averse formulation of the uncovered interest rate parity to determine exchange rates through interest rate differentials, and ultimately extract currency risk premia. The method proposed consists of developing an affine Arbitrage-Free class of dynamic Nelson-Siegel term...

This paper studies the ability of external imbalances to indicate subsequent exchange rate returns. We propose a simple twist of the Gourinchas and Rey (2007) approximation to the intertemporal budget constraint which is valid for countries that are net creditors (or net debtors) consistently...

This paper provides evidence of short-run predictability for the real exchange rate by performing out-of-sample tests of a forecasting equation which is derived from a consumption-based asset pricing model. In this model, the real exchange rate is predictable as a result of the implications of...

There is increasing interest in regional trade, investment, and currency blocs, and in the optimal public policies for such blocs. There is also much managerial interest in the co-movement of exchange rates in a region. The Eastern Caribbean Currency Bloc is one of only three (and one of the...

Several central banks in emerging economies are concerned with excessive volatility in foreign exchange markets and would like to control the direction and speed with which the value of their currency changes. Historically, currency market interventions have consisted of using foreign exchange...

Understanding and measuring the relative roles of different causal channels between commodity prices and exchange rates has important implications in financial decision making, especially for market participants with short horizons. From a macroeconomic perspective, this can also be useful for...

Using a simple numeraire currency-independent metric to measure distances between currencies, it is found that for most of the 25 sampled floating currencies, excluding the US dollar and euro, there has been a noticeable decrease in the ratio of a currency’s distance from the euro to its...

Purpose – This study seeks to explore the nature of a data-generating process for four dollar exchange rates. Design/methodology/approach – Using a discrete parametric modeling approach, an efficient test statistic was computed for nonlinearity in terms of variance of the residuals of the...

In this paper we present a parsimonious multivariate model for exchange rate volatilities based on logarithmic high-low ranges of daily exchange rates. The multivariate stochastic volatility model divides the log range of each exchange rate into two independent latent factors, which are...

We investigate the likely sources of exchange rate dynamics in selected CIS countries (Russia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan, Azerbaijan, and Moldova) over the past decade (1999-2008). The analysis is based on country VAR models augmented by a regional common factor structure (FAVAR model)....