This paper describes a methodology to estimate the coefficients, to test specification hypotheses and to conduct policy exercises in multi-country VAR models with cross unit interdependencies, unit specific dynamics and time variations in the coefficients. The framework of analysis is Bayesian:...

The paper presents the Dutch country block of the ESCB Multi-Country Model (MCM) for the euro area. We show how a theoretical model is translated into an econometric specification and how this specification is in turn estimated and used in the projection exercises of the E(S)CB. The dynamic...

This paper shows that ination in industrialized countries is largely a global phenomenon. First, inations of (22) OECD countries have a common factor that alone accounts for nearly 70% of their variance. This large variance share that is associated to Global Inflation is not only due to the...