Functional data is a common and important type in econometrics and has been easier and easier to collect in the big data era. To improve estimation accuracy and reduce forecast risks with functional data, in this paper, we propose a novel cross-validation model averaging method for generalized...

It is still unknown whether there is some deep structure to modern wars and terrorist campaigns that could allow reliable prediction of future patterns of violent events. Recent war research focuses on size distributions of violent events, with size defined by the number of people killed in each...

Despite the surge in quantitative research examining the link between climate variability and conflict, a lot of uncertainty exists concerning whether there is a link. One shortcoming of the current literature is that it focuses mainly on statistical inference in order to establish causation...