Similar Search Results

Tillio, Alfredo Di; Gilboa, Itzhak; Samuelson, Larry - HAL - 2012

We suggest a model that describes how counterfactuals are constructed and justified. The model can describe how … counterfactual beliefs are updated given the unfolding of actual history. It also allows us to examine the use of counterfactuals in … prediction, and to show that a logically omniscient reasoner gains nothing from using counterfactuals for prediction. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010898891

Conditional belief types

Di Tillio, Alfredo; Halpern, Joseph Y.; Samet, Dov - In: Games and Economic Behavior 87 (2014) C, pp. 253-268

We study type spaces where a player's type at a state is a conditional probability on the space. We axiomatize these spaces using conditional belief operators, examining three additional axioms of increasing strength. First, introspection, which requires the agent to be unconditionally certain...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010931186

Tests of Policy Ineffectiveness in Macroeconometrics

Pesaran, M. Hashem; Smith, Ron P. - CESifo - 2014

realisations of the outcome variable of interest and counterfactuals based on no policy intervention, using only the pre …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010877883

Counterfactual Analysis in Macroeconometrics: An Empirical Investigation into the Effects of Quantitative Easing

Pesaran, M. Hashem; Smith, Ron P - Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics - 2014

The policy innovations that followed the recent Great Recession, such as unconventional monetary policies, prompted renewed interest in the question of how to measure the effectiveness of such policy interventions. To test policy effectiveness requires a model to construct a counterfactual for...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010886268

Tests of Policy Ineffectiveness in Macroeconometrics

Pesaran, M. Hashem; Smith, Ron P - Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics - 2014

realisations of the outcome variable of interest and counterfactuals based on no policy intervention, using only the pre …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010886286

Net wealth across the euro area - why household structure matters and how to control for it

Fessler, Pirmin; Lindner, Peter; Segalla, Esther - 2014

We study the link between household structure and cross country differences in the wealth distribution using a recently compiled data set for the euro area (HFCS). We estimate counterfactual distributions using non-parametric re-weighting to examine the extent to which differences in the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605708

Differences in Positions along a Hierarchy: Counterfactuals Based on an Assignment Model

Gobillon, Laurent; Meurs, Dominique; Roux, Sébastien - 2017

We propose an assignment model in which positions along a hierarchy are attributed to individuals depending on their characteristics. Our theoretical framework can be used to study differences in assignment and outcomes across groups and we show how it can motivate decomposition and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011653454

Econometric analysis of the wealth gap between East and West Germany

Becker, Gideon - 2015

Nearly 25 years after the German reunification, vastly different living conditions between East and West Germany still remain. This is particularly true for the distribution of net wealth which is of special importance for the well-being of individuals. Wealth provides utility in a number of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011348211

Estimating General Equilibrium Trade Policy Effects: GE PPML

Anderson, James E.; Larch, Mario; Yotov, Yoto V. - 2015

We develop a simple estimation procedure for general equilibrium (GE) comparative static analysis of gravity models. Non-linear solvers of estimated models are replaced by (constrained) regressions. Applied economists can more readily generate results, with more intuition about the working of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011388271

On the Role of Counterfactuals in Inferring Causal Effects of Treatments

Kluve, Jochen - 2001

Causal inference in the empirical sciences is based on counterfactuals. This paper presents the counterfactual account … counterfactuals for the case of a finite number of treatments, and illustrate these using a simple settheoretical framework. The paper …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010262562