This paper presents a small model of the Australian macroeconomy. The model is empirically based, aggregate in nature and consists of five estimated equations – for non-farm output, the real exchange rate, import prices, unit labour costs and consumer prices. The stylised facts underlying each...

It has to be kept in mind that there is no general construction principle for a perfect composite leading indicator. It is only possible to optimise the construction of such an indicator with respect to specified demands. In the case of the EU Economic Sentiment Indicator the question is if top...

Almost a decade ago David Gruen and Geoff Shuetrim constructed a small macroeconomic model of the Australian economy. A comprehensive description of this model was subsequently provided by Beechey <em>et al</em> (2000). Since that time, however, the model has continued to evolve. This paper provides an...

In this paper, we develop a forward-looking small scale macroeconomic model (SSMM) of the Indonesian economy which is potentially useful for carrying out monetary policy analysis. The Batini-Haldane (1999) model is used as the theoretical underpinning for the development of the model along with...

Monetary policy in India has moved towards an increasingly flexible exchange rate regime without any explicit framework for an alternative nominal anchor. The failure of monetary policy to anchor inflationary expectations of agents, coupled with negative supply shocks has kept inflation above...

A system of econometric models designed for forecasting target monetary indicators as well as conducting monetary policy scenarios analysis is presented. The econometric models integrated in the system are represented in the error correction form and are interlinked by means of monetary policy...

The Central Bank of Uruguay started to an interest rate instrument for monetary policy in September 2009. This paper develops a Small Structural Model for the Uruguayan economy which contributes to the understanding of the channels through which monetary policy operates under a flexible...

In this paper we show that the macroeconomic effects of a transient interestrate peg can be significantly dampened when the peg is perceived to be imperfectly credible by the private sector. By doing so, we provide a solution to what has become known as the "forward guidance puzzle". This is the...