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Real-Time Determinants of Fiscal Policies in the Euro Area : Fiscal Rules, Cyclical Conditions and Elections

Golinelli, Roberto - 2012

We examine the impact of four factors on the fiscal policies of the euro-area countries over the last two decades: the state of public finances, the European fiscal rules, cyclical conditions and general elections. We rely on information actually available to policy-makers at the time of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013110700

Social Security Claiming : Trends and Business Cycle Effects

Johnson, Richard W. - 2012

This study examines Social Security claiming behavior, which has important implications for older Americans and for the system itself. Retirees may begin collecting benefits as early as age 62, but early claimants receive lower monthly benefits for the rest of their lives. Our data come from...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013110755

Global Recession to Global Recovery : Macro and Micro Dynamics of Trade, Finance and Investment

Chugan, Pawan K. - 2012

It is well known fact that all good things, as also bad things, come to an end and business cycles pass through good and bad economic times. Economically 2010 was a year of transition from economic recession to recovery. Economies were improving in some countries and industries were showing...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013110884

Economic Consequences of the Great Recession : Evidence from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics

Bosworth, Barry - 2012

The paper uses micro-survey data from successive waves of the Panel Study on Income Dynamics to investigate the distribution of wealth and job losses during the 2007-09 recession for different segments of the population and the effect of the recession on the retirement decisions of older...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013110902

Financial Turbulence, Business Cycles and Intrinsic Time in an Artificial Economy

Gonçalves, Carlos Pedro dos Santos - 2012

The coevolving coupled dynamics of financial markets and real economies is addressed through an integrated model of an artificial economy in which a population of competing companies have their shares traded in a financial market dominated by value investors and arbitrageurs that evaluate the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013110909

The Effects of Extended Unemployment Insurance Over the Business Cycle : Evidence from Regression Discontinuity Estimates Over Twenty Years

Schmieder, Johannes F. - 2012

One goal of extending the duration of unemployment insurance (UI) in recessions is to increase UI coverage in the face of longer unemployment spells. Although it is a common concern that such extensions may themselves raise nonemployment durations, it is not known how recessions would affect the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013110942

Follow the Money : Quantifying Domestic Effects of Foreign Bank Shocks in the Great Recession

Cetorelli, Nicola - 2012

Foreign banks pulled significant funding from their U.S. branches during the Great Recession. We estimate that the … for larger branches. This internal shock to the balance sheets of U.S. branches of foreign banks had sizable effects on … their lending. On average, for each dollar of funds transferred internally to the parent, branches decreased lending supply …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013110969

Defaults and Losses on Commercial Real Estate Bonds during the Great Depression Era

Wiggers, Tyler - 2012

We employ a unique data set of public commercial real estate (CRE) bonds issued during the Great Depression era (1920-32) to determine their frequency of default and total loss given default. Default rates on these bonds far exceeded those originated in subsequent periods, driven in part by the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013110976

Business Cycles and Social Spending in Developing Countries : Implications for South Korea’s Foreign Aid Strategy

Kim, Namsuk - 2012

The present paper contributes to the literature by providing arguments and evidence on volatility of government expenditure, especially social spending and the role of foreign aid. Empirical findings from government spending data for 27 countries between 1990 and 2008 suggest that social...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013110998

Fiscal Multipliers in Recession and Expansion

Auerbach, Alan J. - 2012

In this paper, we estimate government purchase multipliers for a large number of OECD countries, allowing these multipliers to vary smoothly according to the state of the economy and using real-time forecast data to purge policy innovations of their predictable components. We adapt our previous...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013111029