This paper provides novel evidence on the determinants of the synchronization in business cycles. I find trade has surprisingly small quantitative effects. On the other hand, pairs of countries with higher aggregate income level experience significantly more synchronized business cycles, and...

The New Keynesian Phillips Curve is at the center of two raging empirical debates. First, how can purely forward looking pricing account for the observed persistence in aggregate inflation. Second, price-setting responds to movements in marginal costs, which should therefore be the driving force...

Estimates of the elasticity of substitution between domestic and foreign varieties are small in macroeconomic data, but substantially larger in disaggregated microeconomic studies. This may be an artifact of heterogeneity. We use disaggregated multilateral trade data to structurally identify...

The New Keynesian Phillips Curve is at the center of two raging empirical debates. First,vhow can purely forward looking pricing account for the observed persistence in aggregate inflation. Second, price-setting responds to movements in marginal costs, which should therefore be the driving force...

We use portfolio theory to quantify the efficiency of state-level sectoral patterns of production in the United States. On the basis of observed growth in sectoral value added output, we calculate for each state the efficient frontier for investments in the real economy, the efficient Sharpe...

This paper studies the determinants of the international synchronization of business cycles. Surprisingly, countries that trade more do not appear to have more synchronized cycles once other factors are accounted for. On the other hand, the extent of co-fluctuations increases quite robustly with...

We show the importance of a dynamic aggregation bias in accounting for the PPP puzzle. We prove that established time-series and panel methods substantially exaggerate the persistence of real exchange rates because of heterogeneity in the dynamics of disaggregated relative prices. When...

Estimates of the elasticity of substitution between domestic and foreign varieties are small in macroeconomic data, but substantially larger in disaggregated microeconomic studies. This may be an artifact of heterogeneity. We use disaggregated multilateral trade data to structurally identify...

I use monthly data on industrial production to estimate the distribution of international business cycle correlations since the 1980's, with focus on the current turmoil. The degree of international correlation in national business cycles since the end of 2008 is unprecedented in three decades....