Using a flexible semiparametric varying coefficient model specification, this paper examines the role of fiscal policy on the U.S. asset markets (stocks, corporate and treasury bonds). We consider two possible roles of fiscal deficits (or surpluses): as a separate direct information variable and...

The purpose of this paper is to propose a global discrete-time modeling of the term structure of interest rates which is able to capture simultaneously the following important features: (i) an historical dynamics of the factor driving term structure shapes involving several lagged values, and...

Contagion tests that are based on the correlation coefficient assume constant correlations and symmetric impacts of shocks. Moreover, they neglect volatility as a potential factor of contagion. We show that such tests can be misleading when correlations are time-varying and volatility is...

In this paper we propose a new indicator of monthly global real economic activity, named world steel production. We use world steel production, OECD industrial production index and Kilian's rea index to forecast world real GDP, and key commodity prices. We find that world steel production...

In this paper we propose a method for estimating and conducting inference on categorical effects of random variables that are characterize by more that two categories. We focus on a class of parametric asymptotically normal estimators in deriving the the properties which allows for inference on...

Managed volatility strategies adjust market exposure in inverse relation to a risk estimate, to stabilize realized portfolio volatility through time. Our paper examines strategy performance from an investment practitioner perspective. Using long-term data from the Standard & Poor's 500, we show...

Korean Abstract: 본고는 우리나나 은행의 예·대금리차(spread)의 조정행태가 비대칭적 특성을 갖는지를 문턱자기회귀모형(threshold autoregressive: TAR)과 모멘텀 문턱자기 회귀모형(momentum threshold autoregressive: M-TAR)을 이용하여...

We adopt a family of nonparametric Cressie-Read estimators to price options based on relative pricing using the underlying asset returns. We use option models with stochastic volatility and jumps to investigate the ability of each member in this family to price options with different moneynesses...

We propose a new class of performance measures for Hedge Fund (HF) returns based on a family of empirically identifiable stochastic discount factors (SDFs). The SDF-based measures incorporate no-arbitrage pricing restrictions and naturally embed information about higher-order mixed moments...

What is the most statistically efficient way to do off-policy optimization with batch data from bandit feedback? For log data generated by contextual bandit algorithms, we consider offline estimators for the expected reward from a counterfactual policy. Our estimators are shown to have the...