We study the presence of long term investors using different return forecasting strategies and switching them based on their past performance generates the price trends observed in financial markets. In the empirical section, we assume that investors choose how to allocate their portfoilios...

While the market for Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) has developed considerably over the past decade, the debate over whether their issuance benefits the U.S. Treasury remains contentious. Information from inflation swap rates in conjunction with a joint model of yields for...

Estimating market expectations for inflation from the yield difference between nominal Treasury bonds and Treasury inflation-protected securities-a difference known as breakeven inflation-is complicated by the liquidity differential between these two types of securities. Currently, the extent to...

We derive a model-independent maximum range for the admissible liquidity risk premium in real Treasury bonds—also known as Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS). The range is constructed using additional information in the inflation swap market and a set of simple theoretical...

Opportunistic politicians use the composition of public debt as a signal for competence. A competent government will not issue long-term nominal debt, as optimal to balance the budget, but long-term inflation-indexed debt. We consider politicians that pursue the objective of a balanced budget...

Estimating the liquidity differential between inflation-indexed and nominal bond yields, we separately test for time-varying real rate risk premia, inflation risk premia, and liquidity premia in U.S. and U.K. bond markets. We find strong, model independent evidence that real rate risk premia and...

Remarks at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Inflation-Indexed Securities and Inflation Risk Management Conference.

We propose a new approach to measuring long-run inflation risk, the inflation risk premium, and inflation expectations for the UK over the period 1985–2012. By adding long-term bond futures to the information set of inflation-indexed and nominal bonds, inflation risk is measured as an...

We make the case for the U.S. government to issue a new security with a coupon tied to the United States’ current dollar GDP. This security might pay, for example, a coupon of one-trillionth of the GDP, and we propose the name 'Trill' be used to refer to this new security. This new debt...

Opportunistic politicians use the composition of public debt as a signal for competence. A competent government will not issue long-term nominal debt, as optimal to balance the budget, but long-term inflation-indexed debt. We consider politicians that pursue the objective of a balanced budget...