This paper studies the predictive ability of a variety of models in forecasting the yield curve for the Brazilian fixed income market. We compare affine term structure models with a variation of the Nelson-Siegel exponential framework developed by Diebold and Li (2006). Empirical results suggest...

This paper proposes a model to conduct macro stress test of credit risk for the banking system based on scenario analysis. We employ an original bank level data set with disaggregated credit loans for business and consumer loans. The results corroborate the presence of a strong procyclical...

This paper presents empirical evidence suggesting that the degree of long-range dependence in interest rates depends on the conduct of monetary policy. We study the term structure of interest rates for the US and find evidence that global Hurst exponents change dramatically according to Chairman...

This paper investigates the effects of monetary policy over banks' loans growth and non-performing loans for the recent period in Brazil. We contribute to the literature on bank lending and risk taking channel by showing that during periods of loosening/tightening monetary policy, banks...

This paper tests whether diversification of the credit portfolio at the bank level is associated to better performance and lower risk. We employ a new high frequency (monthly) panel data constructed for the Brazilian banking system with information at the bank level for loans by economic sector....

Periods of Financial Stability are associated to low bank efficiency and high non-performing loans in credit portfolios. Therefore, this paper studies the relationship between bank efficiency and non-performing loans. To evaluate the bank efficiency, we employ a Data Envelopment Analysis. We...

This paper discusses the effects of the recent financial crisis on the Brazilian banking system. It discusses how liquidity risks have risen during the crisis and preventive measures that were taken in order to cope with these risks. It presents the liquidity stress testing approach that is...

In this paper, we propose a methodology to measure systemic risk that stems from financial institutions (FIs) interconnected in interbank markets. We show that this framework is useful to identify systemically important FIs. This methodology can be used to perform stress tests using additional...

This paper analyzes the financial institutions (FIs) that operate in the Brazilian Interbank Market, investigating, through simulations, the potential contagion that they present, the contagion losses' and the contagion route associated to FIs' bankruptcies, and the value of the 1-year expected...

This paper aims to study the effect of banking competition on Latin American banks' risk-taking and whether capitalization and size changes this relationship. We conclude that: (1) competition affects risk in a non-linear manner: high/low (average) competition are related to more (less)...