The main goal of this paper is to investigate the hypothesis that currency crisis models based on macroeconomic fundamentals explain, to some extent, the occurrence of speculative attacks and currency crisis in Brazil between January 1982 and January 1999. For this purpose, the external sector...

As in any Monte Carlo application, simulation option valuation produces imprecise estimates. In such an application, Descriptive Sampling (DS) has proven to be a powerful Variance Reduction Technique. However, this performance deteriorates as the probability of exercising an option decreases. In...

This paper examines the recent evolution of monetary policy since the adoption of formal inflation targeting in Brazil. We argue that the new policy framework has been subject to a severe test in its first years of existence, represented by external shocks - oil prices, and increased...

In this paper, I investigate the patterns of price adjustments in Brazil. I derive the main stylized facts describing the behavior of price setters directly from a large data set of the CPI price quotes spanning approximately ten years until 2006. I find that on average prices remain unchanged...

There are few studies directly addressing exchange rate and inflation volatilities, and lack of consensus among them. However, this kind of study is necessary, especially because they can help monetary authorities to know price behavior better. This article analyses the relation between exchange...

In this paper, we examine optimal portfolio decisions within a decentralized framework. There are many portfolio managers choosing optimal portfolio weights in a mean-variance framework and taking decisions in a decentralized way. However, the overall portfolio may not be efficient, as the...

This paper deals with the efficiency of the Brent Crude oil future contracts and tests whether futures can be used to predict realized oil spot prices. Evidence suggests that future prices up to three-months contracts on Brent Crude are unbiased predictors of future spot prices but the...

This paper presents a medium-scale structural model for the Brazilian economy with more than 30 equations. The potential output is derived from a Cobb-Douglas production function and the demand side is divided in estimated equation for: consumption of the families, investment in machinery and...

This paper examines empirically the demand of foreign exchange derivatives by Brazilian corporations. We build an original database of 25,457 contracts of foreign exchange swaps between firms and financial institutions open at the end of 2002. From these contracts we identify 53 corporations...

This article presents an empirical application illustrating the use of a nonparametric frontier model relying on a probabilistic definition of the production frontier. The significance of the variable nonperforming loans in productive efficiency is assessed, for a sample of Brazilian banks,...