We develop a methodology for using intra-annual data to forecast annual budget deficits. Our approach aims at improving the accuracy of the deficit forecasts, a relevant issue to policy makers in the Eurozone and at proposing a replicable methodology using at best public quantitative information...

In an open economy, outside money in positive supply does not eliminate the real indeterminacy which arises under uncertainty and incomplete asset markets. If money supply is subject to shocks or is not perfectly credible in all countries, the level of a fixed exchange rate matters. Analogous...