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This paper explores the specification and use of uncertainty measures in constructions of policy forecasts of money market activity. The concept of a policy forecast implies efforts not only to explicitly condition forecasts on assumptions regarding short-run operating procedures but also to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013403665
In this paper, we explore machine learning (ML) methods to improve inflation forecasting in Brazil. An extensive out …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014382916
This paper presents an analysis of ethanol-gasoline price ratio in Brazil from 2000 to 2012. Since 2008 Brazilian … annual inflation in Brazil is around 5% per year and increase in costs is transferred to ethanol prices this explain why … ethanol consumption decays while gasoline consumption boosts. In Brazil, consumers are often told that ethanol is more …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011098712
We discuss statistical inference problems associated with identification and testability in econometrics, and we emphasize the common nature of the two issues. After reviewing the relevant statistical notions, we consider in turn inference in nonparametric models and recent developments on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005100952
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001404855
components of annual inflation in Colombia for the period 1989:12-1998:8. The evidence suggests that, within a univariate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014055940
persistencia tanto para el nivel como para la brecha de la inflación en Colombia en el período 1990-2010, por medio de un modelo de …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010775283
concluye que la persistencia inflacionaria se elevó en Colombia entre 1979-1989 y 1989-1999, y se redujo a sus menores niveles …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010775285
En este documento se evalúan las diferentes formas de medición de la persistenciaestadística y los distintos factores estructurales que podrían explicarla. Se presenta unamedición de la persistencia estadística de la inflación y de la brecha de inflación en Colombiapara el período...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008914315
En este documento se estima un modelo econométrico que descompone la seriede inflación trimestral anualizada entre un componente transitorio y otropermanente, este último inducido probablemente por las variaciones en la metadel Banco Central. Se concluye que la persistencia inflacionaria se...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008765704