Inflation targeting requires inflation forecasts, yet most models in the literature are either theoretical or calibrated. The motivation for this paper is therefore threefold: We seek to test and implement an econometric model forforecasting inflation in Norway–one economy recently opting for...

Standard econometric tests for whether money causes output will be meaningless if monetary policy is chosen optimally to smooth fluctuations in output. If U.S. monetary policy were chosen to smooth U.S. output, we show that U.S. money will not Granger cause U.S. output. Indeed, as shown by Rowe...

This article complements the structural New-Keynesian macro framework with a no-arbitrage term structure model. Whereas our methodology is general, we focus on an extended macro-model with an unobservable time-varying markup and stochastic risk aversion. Term structure information helps to...

The ability of monetary policy to affect long-term interest rates is of central importance for economics and finance. Several recent studies have shown that long-term interest rates are virtually unaffected by monetary policy. This paper develops a statistical methodology to identify the...

This paper presents a cointegrated VAR analysis of monetary transmission mechanisms and changes in them after Spain joined the EMS in 1989. Analyses of long-run price homogeneity within the I(2) model turned out to be crucial for understanding the joint behaviour of money, income, prices, and...

The focus is on nominal transmission mechanisms in Italy with special reference to monetary effects and how they have changed with the increased economic integration in Europe and the increased independence of Italian Central Bank. The empirical model investigates the dynamic determination of...

This paper analyzes the importance of monetary and fiscal policy shocks in explaining US macroeconomic fluctuations, and establishes new stylized facts. The novelty of our empirical analysis is that we jointly consider both monetary and fiscal policy, whereas the existing literature only focuses...

This paper implements an affine term structure model that accommodates "unspanned" macro risks for the Euro area, i.e. distinct from yield-curve risks. I use a Near-Cointegrated VAR-like approach to obtain a better estimation of the historical dynamics of the pricing factors, thus providing more...

Standard econometric tests for whether money causes output will be meaningless if monetary policy is chosen optimally to smooth fluctuations in output. If U.S. monetary policy were chosen to smooth U.S. output, we show that U.S. money will not Granger cause U.S. output. Indeed, as shown by Rowe...