Using the recursive unit root test by Phillips et al. (2011) we show that the Target balances of the German Bundesbank have been explosive from the beginning of 2009 to the beginning of 2013. By implementing a full-allotment policy and reducing the required minimum quality of collaterals in...

In the present paper I examine tax revenue projections in Germany over the period 1968 to 2012 with a focus on forecasting rationality. I show that tax revenue forecasts for themedium-term are upward biased. Overoptimistic revenue projections are particularly pronounced after the German...

In this paper, we ask whether it is possible to forecast gross value-added (GVA) and its sectoral subcomponents at the regional level. With an autoregressive distributed lagmodel we forecast total and sectoral GVA for one German state (Saxony) with more than 300 indicators from different...

Inspired by the theory of variety-expanding product innovation we derive a testable relationship of outsourcing on the growth rate of knowledge. We estimate this relationship with a firm-level dataset, which is a unique match of PATSTAT patent data and theAmadeus dataset. We find evidence that...

Are public sector jobs better than private sector jobs? To answer this question, this paper investigates observed differences in job satisfaction between public- and private-sector workers and disentangles the effect of worker sorting from the one caused by sectorspecific job characteristics. A...

Forecast models with large cross-sections are often subject to overparameterization leading to unstable parameter estimates and hence inaccurate forecasts. Recent articlessuggest that a large Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) with sufficient prior information dominates competing approaches....

International specialization is a strong driver of sectoral productivity. This specialization is not only characterized by the diversity of final goods, but also by the variety of intermediate inputs. Thereby the importance of inputs is not only demonstrated by its large shares in gross output,...

We propose a model of production where technical change is both time and management induced. We define a general management index in addition to the general time index of Baltagi and Griffin (1988) and use them as arguments in the translog productionfunction. Time and management induced...