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The effectiveness of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in open economies could be impaired if interest rates are driven primarily by global factors, especially during periods of large capital inflows. The main objective of this paper is to assess whether this is true for emerging...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242336
To investigate the effects on Papua New Guinea’s economy of substantial liquified natural gas revenues arriving in 2015, we employ a model to examine the macroeconomic effects of a scalingup of natural resource windfall revenues and the implications for a variety of policy responses. The model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242363
) revisits the measurement of global house price inflation and the modeling of the determinants of house price inflation using …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242366
for formulating and assessing monetary policy. Food prices are found to be a key driver of inflation, and, not surprising …Inflation in Mongolia resembles a roller coaster ride with sharp rises and steep drops. Understanding why is critical … underlying inflation by 1 percentage point. So, while inflation will remain volatile due to agricultural shocks, there is space …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242383
of the two samples: initial income, terms of trade, exchange rate undervaluation and inflation, influence spells only in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242395
This is the sixth of a series of papers that are being written as part of a project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit to which economists have access for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242396
We develop a semi-structural new-Keynesian open-economy model, with separate food and non-food inflation dynamics, for …-relevant exercises. First, we filter international and Kenyan data (on output, inflation and its components, exchange rates and interest … last few years, with a special emphasis on the various factors (international food prices, monetary policy) driving …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242400
This paper examines the recent behavior of core inflation in the United States. We specify a simple Phillips curve … based on the assumptions that inflation expectations are fully anchored at the Federal Reserve’s target, and that labor …-market slack is captured by the level of shortterm unemployment. This equation explains inflation behavior since 2000, including …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242402
We present new evidence on how heterogeneity in banks interacts with monetary policy changes to impact bank lending. Using an exogenous policy measure identified from narratives on FOMC intentions and real-time economic forecasts, we find much greater heterogeneity in U.S. bank lending responses...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242407
We propose a new approach to test the full-information rational expectations hypothesis which can identify whether rejections of the arise from information rigidities. This approach quantifies the economic significance of departures from the and the underlying degree of information rigidity....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242409