This paper develops a comprehensive new framework to measure and analyze sovereign risk. Since traditional macroeconomic vulnerability indicators and accounting-based measures do not address risk in a comprehensive and forward-looking way, the contingent claims approach is used to construct a...

We show that cross-country differences in the underlying volatility and persistence of macroeconomic shocks help explain two historical regularities in sovereign borrowing: the existence of ""vicious"" circles of borrowing-and-default (""default traps""), as well as the fact that recalcitrant...

The aim of this paper is to assess the short- and medium-term impact of debt crises on GDP. Using an unbalanced panel of 154 countries from 1970 to 2008, the paper shows that debt crises produce significant and long-lasting output losses, reducing output by about 10 percent after eight years....

This paper describes developments in multilateral official debt renegotiations over the 18 months up to the end of June 1986. To facilitate the return to normal market access for countries considered to have made substantial progress in their adjustment efforts, official creditors recently...

This paper describes developments in multilateral official debt renegotiations over the 18 months through December 1987. The most important new departure in multilateral official debt renegotiations was the adaptation of policies by Paris Club creditors in response to the protracted problems of...

This pamphlet describes the IMF-World Bank initiative begun in 1996 to address in a comprehensive manner the overall debt burden of eligible heavily indebted poor countries (HIPCs) pursuing programs of adjustment and reform supported by the two organizations. The aim of the Initiative is to...

This paper discusses the promotion of IMF Stand-By Arrangements (SBAs), the drafting of private loan agreements, and order in international finance. The IMF approves a SBA or an extended arrangement for the benefit of a member country of the IMF only if the member presents to the IMF a letter of...

This book examines the challenges facing the international monetary and financial system, as well as the future role of the Bretton Woods institutions in addressing those challenges. The volume is based on the proceedings of a 2004 conference cosponsored by the Banco de Espana and the...

How do financial markets respond to concerns over debt sustainability and the level of public debt in emerging markets? We introduce a measure of debt sustainability – the difference between the debt stabilizing primary balance and the primary balance–in an otherwise standard spread...

This paper analyzes the factors determining the payment on outstanding debt in the presence of partial defaults, and the feasibility of renewed investment. We show that a higher relative size of sectors with lower substitutability between domestic and foreign products will increase the resource...