The article develops a stylized medium-run post-Kaleckian open economy model with conflict inflation and combines two existing specifications of the income share targets of workers and firms. In the model, only the target of firms is directly affected by the real exchange rate. Workers do not...

Inflationary processes are closely linked to wage-price spirals - such spirals can be triggered by many factors, including natural resource price shocks, depreciation and inflationary demand. Empirically, the correlation between changes in nominal unit labour costs and the price level is strong...

Is inflation (still) a global phenomenon? We study the international co-movement of inflation based on a dynamic factor model and in a sample spanning up to 56 countries during the 1960-2023 period. Over the entire period, a first global factor explains approximately 58% of the variation in...

Using daily retail prices gathered through web scraping in Mexico, we analyze if price changes can be characterized by time-dependent features, like the duration of the price spell, and/or by variables associated with the state of the economy. Through the lens of a duration model, we find...

We explain how the Bank of Canada's policy models capture the trade-off between output and inflation in Canada. We start by briefly revisiting the determinants of the New Keynesian Phillips curve. Next, we provide an overview of the Phillips curves that are currently embedded in the two main...

When taxes do not sufficiently adjust to government debt levels, the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level predicts that other variables, such as inflation and output gap, must adjust to ensure the solvency of public finances. We study the role of optimal debt maturity portfolios in this context,...

We study the link between expected inflation and wages using novel panel data from German firms and employees. We find that pass-through - the percentage point change in wage growth given a one percentage point change in expected inflation - is small: 0.11-0.17 for firms and 0.03-0.07 for...

Using daily retail prices gathered through web scraping in Mexico, we analyze if price changes can be characterized by time-dependent features, like the duration of the price spell, and/or by variables associated with the state of the economy. Through the lens of a duration model, we find...

When it comes to rising house prices, nearly everyone has a theory about the cause. There’s ‘too much foreign money’. There are ‘too many immigrants’. There’s ‘too little construction’. And so on. What unites these explanations is that they appeal, in some way, to the idea that...

Why do some attempts at disinflation lead to substantial reductions in inflation while others do not? We investigate this question in the context of the Federal Reserve's attempts at disinflation since World War II. Our central finding is that a fundamental determinant of success in reducing...