In this paper, we use survey data to analyze the rationality of professional macroeconomic forecasts. We analyze both … used with caution, since even if all individual forecasts are rational the hypothesis of rationality is often rejected by … ; macroeconomic forecasting ; rationality ; survey data ; fixed-event forecasts …

rationality of aggregate stock-market forecasts. The BRT algorithm endogenously selects the predictor variables used to proxy the …

characterising their constituents: heterogeneity and interaction as the main sources of complexity and emergence. This perspective is … developed by reasoning on the double-face problem of microfoundation and aggregation in macroeconomic modelling taking care of … heterogeneity, interaction and composition effects of individual behaviours into the emergence of macroscopic phenomena. With …