Using internal loan level data, we provide evidence consistent with risk-shifting in the lending behavior of a large subprime mortgage originator -- New Century Financial Corporation -- starting in 2004. This change follows the monetary policy tightening implemented by the Fed in the spring of...

We analyze firm-level analyst forecasts during the COVID crisis. First, we describe expectations dynamics about future corporate earnings. Downward revisions have been sharp, mostly focused on 2020, 2021 and 2022, but much less drastic than the lower bound estimated by Gormsen and Koijen (2020)....

We document the role of geographic dispersion on corporate decision-making. Our findings include: (i) geographically dispersed firms are less employee friendly; (ii) dismissals of divisional employees are less common in divisions located closer to corporate headquarters; and (iii) firms appear...

We document the role of geographic dispersion on corporate decision-making. First, we find that geographically dispersed firms are less employee-friendly. Second, using division-level data, employee dismissals are less common in divisions located close to corporate headquarters. Third, firms are...

Currency shocks affect future corporate earnings: Companies exporting in countries with an appreciating currency see their earnings increase. This reflects the fact that currency hedging is only partial. Using company-level data on geographic sales, we document that analysts fail to fully...

Using trade-level data, we study whether brokers play a role in spreading order flow information. We focus on large portfolio liquidations, which result in temporary drops in stock prices, and identify the brokers that intermediate these trades. We show that these brokers' best clients tend to...

The correlation across US states in house price growth increased steadily between 1976 and 2000. This paper shows that the contemporaneous geographic integration of the US banking market, via the emergence of large banks, was a primary driver of this phenomenon. To this end, we first...

We study belief formation in a large-scale experiment where participants forecast a stable random process, across a rich set of conditions. We have three main findings. First, the rational expectations hypothesis is strongly rejected and we find little evidence of learning over time. Second,...