1 Introduction -- 1.1 Specification and misspecification of the econometric model -- 1.2 The purpose and scope of this study -- 2 Preliminary Mathematics -- 2.1 Random variables, independence, Borel measurable functions and mathematical expectation -- 2.2 Convergence of random variables and...

In this paper we specify a semi-nonparametric competing risks (SNP-CR) model of recidivism, for misdemeanors and felonies. The model is a bivariate mixed proportional hazard model with Weibull baseline hazards and common unobserved heterogeneity. The distribution of the latter is modeled...

In this paper we propose a time-varying vector error correction model in which the cointegrating relationship varies smoothly over time. The Johansen setup is a special case of our model. A likelihood ratio test for time-invariant cointegration is defined and its asymptotic chi-square...

In this paper we consider the asymptotic properties of least squares estimators of the parameters of linear and nonlinear ARMAX models under data heterogeneity, where we allow the X-variables to be stochastic time series themselves, possibly depending on lagged dependent variables. These results...

In this paper I propose estimating distributions on the unit interval semi-nonparametrically using orthonormal Legendre polynomials. This approach will be applied to the interval-censored mixed proportional hazard (ICMPH) model, where the distribution of the unobserved heterogeneity is modeled...

Given observations on a stationary economic vector time series process we show that the best <italic>h</italic>-step ahead forecast (best in the sense of having minimal mean square forecast error) of one of the variables can be consistently estimated by nonparametric regression on an ARMA memory index. Our...

In this paper the asymptotic properties of ARMA processes with complex- conjugate unit roots in the AR lag polynomial are studied. These processes behave quite differently from processes with a single root equal to 1. In particular, the asymptotic properties of a standardized version of the...